Using Public Health Data to Evaluate Screening Programs: Application to Prostate Cancer

This chapter describes the use of computer modeling to quantify the link between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening and prostate cancer incidence and mortality. Data resources for both cancer surveillance and PSA screening are outlined and an approach to modeling both prostate cancer mortality and incidence is presented. The models can be formalized as a statistical framework for inference by developing a likelihood function for the key variables that link PSA screening and prostate cancer incidence. The chapter also reviews alternative modeling approaches and other methods that have been used to address the link between PSA screening and population trends in prostate cancer mortality.