Predicting successful 24-hr quit attempt in a smoking cessation intervention.

The factors that influence the initial phase of quitting smoking have been understudied. Although maintenance of change is the ultimate test of the efficacy of treatment, maintenance is a nonissue for those who fail to manage even brief periods of abstinence. We examined factors associated with smokers' ability to achieve a targeted 24-hr quit during a smoking cessation program. As a comparison, we also examine whether predictors of an initial quit are different from factors that predict smoking abstinence at 52-week follow-up. Using baseline data from a randomized clinical trial to examine the efficacy of selegiline for cigarette smoking cessation (n = 280), we conducted univariate analyses (analysis of variance or chi-square) to determine statistically significant predictors of a successful quit attempt (SQA) versus unsuccessful quit attempt. Multiple logistic regression was performed with significant predictors from the univariate analyses to determine main effects and interactions in a multivariate model. The same factors and analyses were used to examine predictors of 52-week point prevalence abstinence. Lower nicotine dependence (modified Fagerström Tolerance Questionnaire [mFTQ]), higher Behavioral Inhibition System score, and lower baseline heart rate were predictive of SQA in both the univariate and the multivariate models. Gender was the only predictor of 52-week smoking abstinence. Predictors of initial induction of change were not predictors of abstinence at the 1-year follow-up, suggesting that different factors mediate the different subprocesses of behavior change. Knowledge of these pretreatment factors that moderate a SQA could help clinicians target smokers who need more intensive therapy during the initial induction of cessation.