Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change

B. D. Santer; T. M.L. Wigley; G. A. Meehl; M. F. Wehner; C. Mears; M. Schabel; F. J. Wentz; C. Ammann; J. Arblaster; T. Bettge; W. M. Washington; K. E. Taylor; J. S. Boyle; W. Brüggemann; C. Doutriaux

doi:10.1126/science.1082393

Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change

B. D. Santer, T. M.L. Wigley, G. A. Meehl, M. F. Wehner, C. Mears, M. Schabel, F. J. Wentz, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, T. Bettge, W. M. Washington, K. E. Taylor, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, C. Doutriaux

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Abstract

Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1°C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A modelpredicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1280-1284
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	300
Issue number	5623
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1082393
State	Published - May 23 2003
Externally published	Yes

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Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Meehl, G. A., Wehner, M. F., Mears, C., Schabel, M., Wentz, F. J., Ammann, C., Arblaster, J., Bettge, T., Washington, W. M., Taylor, K. E., Boyle, J. S., Brüggemann, W., & Doutriaux, C. (2003). Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change. Science, 300(5623), 1280-1284. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1082393

Santer, BD, Wigley, TML, Meehl, GA, Wehner, MF, Mears, C, Schabel, M, Wentz, FJ, Ammann, C, Arblaster, J, Bettge, T, Washington, WM, Taylor, KE, Boyle, JS, Brüggemann, W & Doutriaux, C 2003, 'Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change', Science, vol. 300, no. 5623, pp. 1280-1284. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1082393

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title = "Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change",

abstract = "Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1°C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A modelpredicted {"}fingerprint{"} of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.",

author = "Santer, {B. D.} and Wigley, {T. M.L.} and Meehl, {G. A.} and Wehner, {M. F.} and C. Mears and M. Schabel and Wentz, {F. J.} and C. Ammann and J. Arblaster and T. Bettge and Washington, {W. M.} and Taylor, {K. E.} and Boyle, {J. S.} and W. Br{\"u}ggemann and C. Doutriaux",

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AU - Santer, B. D.

AU - Wigley, T. M.L.

AU - Meehl, G. A.

AU - Wehner, M. F.

AU - Mears, C.

AU - Schabel, M.

AU - Wentz, F. J.

AU - Ammann, C.

AU - Arblaster, J.

AU - Bettge, T.

AU - Washington, W. M.

AU - Taylor, K. E.

AU - Boyle, J. S.

AU - Brüggemann, W.

AU - Doutriaux, C.

PY - 2003/5/23

Y1 - 2003/5/23

N2 - Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1°C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A modelpredicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.

AB - Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1°C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A modelpredicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.

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Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change

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