Independent predictors of cognitive decline in healthy elderly persons

Scott Marquis, M. Milar Moore, Diane Howieson, Gary Sexton, Haydeh Payami, Jeffrey Kaye, Richard Camicioli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

248 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Several studies have shown that individually memory, hippocampal volume, and motor measures presage the onset of dementia. It is unclear if these independently contribute to the prediction of mild cognitive impairment. Objective: To determine the ability of memory, hippocampal volume, and a gait speed to independently predict cognitive decline in healthy elderly persons. Design: A prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study with a mean follow-up of 6 years. Participants: One hundred eight optimally healthy elderly cognitively intact subjects. Main Outcome Measures: Any cognitive impairment noted on the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale (score=0.5) or persistent or progressive cognitive impairment. Cox modeling determined if time to onset of cognitive impairment was associated with baseline logical memory II test score (a measure of delayed recall), hippocampal volume (magnetic resonance imaging), or gait speed (time to walk 30 ft [9 m]) independent of age, sex, depression, or the allele producing the ε4 type of apolipoprotein E (APOE ε4). Results: Questionable dementia occurred in 48 participants in a mean (SD) of 3.7 (2.4) years. This progressed to persistent cognitive impairment in 38 of these participants in a mean (SD) of 4.4 (2.4) years. Logical memory II test performance and hippocampal volume each predicted onset of questionable dementia, independent of age and sex. Time to walk 30 ft additionally contributed independently to the prediction of time to onset of persistent cognitive impairment. Possessing the APOE ε4 allele and depression did not enter either model significantly. Conclusions: Models combining multiple risk factors should refine the prediction of questionable dementia and persistent cognitive impairment, harbingers of dementia. Individuals at risk for cognitive impairment may represent a high-risk group for intervention.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)601-606
Number of pages6
JournalArchives of Neurology
Volume59
Issue number4
StatePublished - 2002

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Dementia
Alleles
Depression
Apolipoprotein E4
Cognitive Dysfunction
Cognitive Impairment
Predictors
Person
Aptitude
Observational Studies
Cohort Studies
Onset
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Outcome Assessment (Health Care)
Prediction
Allele
Logic
Walking Speed

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Neuroscience(all)

Cite this

Marquis, S., Milar Moore, M., Howieson, D., Sexton, G., Payami, H., Kaye, J., & Camicioli, R. (2002). Independent predictors of cognitive decline in healthy elderly persons. Archives of Neurology, 59(4), 601-606.

Independent predictors of cognitive decline in healthy elderly persons. / Marquis, Scott; Milar Moore, M.; Howieson, Diane; Sexton, Gary; Payami, Haydeh; Kaye, Jeffrey; Camicioli, Richard.

In: Archives of Neurology, Vol. 59, No. 4, 2002, p. 601-606.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Marquis, S, Milar Moore, M, Howieson, D, Sexton, G, Payami, H, Kaye, J & Camicioli, R 2002, 'Independent predictors of cognitive decline in healthy elderly persons', Archives of Neurology, vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 601-606.
Marquis S, Milar Moore M, Howieson D, Sexton G, Payami H, Kaye J et al. Independent predictors of cognitive decline in healthy elderly persons. Archives of Neurology. 2002;59(4):601-606.
Marquis, Scott ; Milar Moore, M. ; Howieson, Diane ; Sexton, Gary ; Payami, Haydeh ; Kaye, Jeffrey ; Camicioli, Richard. / Independent predictors of cognitive decline in healthy elderly persons. In: Archives of Neurology. 2002 ; Vol. 59, No. 4. pp. 601-606.
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