Objectives:The relative impact of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in minority populations is incompletely understood. We aimed to estimate the race-specific incidences of ESCC and place these in the context of the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in white men with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD).Methods:The race- and sex-specific exposures to tobacco and alcohol in the United States were obtained from the National Health Interview Survey. The standardized incidence ratios of exposure to tobacco smoke and/or alcohol for ESCC were estimated from meta-analyses. Existing incidences of ESCC in the United States were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. We then used this data to inform a Markov computer model estimating the incidence of ESCC.Results:The incidence of ESCC reported in SEER was the greatest among African-Americans compared with white non-Hispanics, Hispanics, or Asians. In our model, the estimated incidence of ESCC in African-American men exposed to tobacco and alcohol approached the risk of EAC in white non-Hispanic men with weekly GERD. For instance, at age 60 years, the incidence of ESCC in African-American men who have used both tobacco and alcohol was 30/100,000 compared with an incidence of EAC in white men with GERD of 40/100,000. In comparison, the risk of EAC in white non-Hispanic women with weekly GERD at this age was 6.2/100,000.Conclusions:The incidence of ESCC in African-American men who use alcohol and tobacco is the highest and comparable to other screened diseases. Development of screening and prevention programs for ESCC in high-risk populations should be considered.Am J Gastroenterol advance online publication, 30 August 2016; doi:10.1038/ajg.2016.346.
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