Testing modeling assumptions in the West Africa Ebola outbreak

Keith Burghardt, Christopher Verzijl, Junming Huang, Matthew Ingram, Binyang Song, Marie Pierre Hasne

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Ebola virus in West Africa has infected almost 30,000 and killed over 11,000 people. Recent models of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have often made assumptions about how the disease spreads, such as uniform transmissibility and homogeneous mixing within a population. In this paper, we test whether these assumptions are necessarily correct, and offer simple solutions that may improve disease model accuracy. First, we use data and models of West African migration to show that EVD does not homogeneously mix, but spreads in a predictable manner. Next, we estimate the initial growth rate of EVD within country administrative divisions and find that it significantly decreases with population density. Finally, we test whether EVD strains have uniform transmissibility through a novel statistical test, and find that certain strains appear more often than expected by chance.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number34598
JournalScientific Reports
Volume6
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 10 2016

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Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
Western Africa
Disease Outbreaks
Ebolavirus
Population Density
Growth
Population

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Burghardt, K., Verzijl, C., Huang, J., Ingram, M., Song, B., & Pierre Hasne, M. (2016). Testing modeling assumptions in the West Africa Ebola outbreak. Scientific Reports, 6, [34598]. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep34598

Testing modeling assumptions in the West Africa Ebola outbreak. / Burghardt, Keith; Verzijl, Christopher; Huang, Junming; Ingram, Matthew; Song, Binyang; Pierre Hasne, Marie.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, 34598, 10.10.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Burghardt, K, Verzijl, C, Huang, J, Ingram, M, Song, B & Pierre Hasne, M 2016, 'Testing modeling assumptions in the West Africa Ebola outbreak', Scientific Reports, vol. 6, 34598. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep34598
Burghardt K, Verzijl C, Huang J, Ingram M, Song B, Pierre Hasne M. Testing modeling assumptions in the West Africa Ebola outbreak. Scientific Reports. 2016 Oct 10;6. 34598. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep34598
Burghardt, Keith ; Verzijl, Christopher ; Huang, Junming ; Ingram, Matthew ; Song, Binyang ; Pierre Hasne, Marie. / Testing modeling assumptions in the West Africa Ebola outbreak. In: Scientific Reports. 2016 ; Vol. 6.
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