TY - JOUR
T1 - Racial and Ethnic Differences in Multimorbidity Changes over Time
AU - Quiñones, Ana R.
AU - Newsom, Jason T.
AU - Elman, Miriam R.
AU - Markwardt, Sheila
AU - Nagel, Corey
AU - Dorr, David A.
AU - Allore, Heather G.
AU - Botoseneanu, Anda
N1 - Funding Information:
Supported by the National Institute on Aging at the National Institutes of Health (R01AG055681 to A.R.Q., R01AG047891 to H.G.A. who con-tributed from the Yale Claude D. Pepper Older Americans Independence Center P30AG021342). Content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent official views of the National Institutes of Health.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins. All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/5
Y1 - 2021/5
N2 - Background: Our understanding of how multimorbidity progresses and changes is nascent. Objectives: Assess multimorbidity changes among racially/ethnically diverse middle-aged and older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study using latent class analysis to identify multimorbidity combinations over 16 years, and multinomial logistic models to assess change relative to baseline class membership. Health and Retirement Study respondents (age 51 y and above) in 1998 and followed through 2014 (N=17,297). Measures: Multimorbidity latent classes of: hypertension, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, stroke, high depressive symptoms. Results: Three latent classes were identified in 1998: minimal disease (45.8% of participants), cardiovascular-musculoskeletal (34.6%), cardiovascular-musculoskeletal-mental (19.6%); and 3 in 2014: cardiovascular-musculoskeletal (13%), cardiovascular-musculoskeletal-metabolic (12%), multisystem multimorbidity (15%). Remaining participants were deceased (48%) or lost to follow-up (12%) by 2014. Compared with minimal disease, individuals in cardiovascular-musculoskeletal in 1998 were more likely to be in multisystem multimorbidity in 2014 [odds ratio (OR)=1.78, P<0.001], and individuals in cardiovascular-musculoskeletal-mental in 1998 were more likely to be deceased (OR=2.45, P<0.001) or lost to follow-up (OR=3.08, P<0.001). Hispanic and Black Americans were more likely than White Americans to be in multisystem multimorbidity in 2014 (OR=1.67, P=0.042; OR=2.60, P<0.001, respectively). Black compared with White Americans were more likely to be deceased (OR=1.62, P=0.01) or lost to follow-up (OR=2.11, P<0.001) by 2014. Conclusions and Relevance: Racial/ethnic older adults are more likely to accumulate morbidity and die compared with White peers, and should be the focus of targeted and enhanced efforts to prevent and/or delay progression to more complex multimorbidity patterns.
AB - Background: Our understanding of how multimorbidity progresses and changes is nascent. Objectives: Assess multimorbidity changes among racially/ethnically diverse middle-aged and older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study using latent class analysis to identify multimorbidity combinations over 16 years, and multinomial logistic models to assess change relative to baseline class membership. Health and Retirement Study respondents (age 51 y and above) in 1998 and followed through 2014 (N=17,297). Measures: Multimorbidity latent classes of: hypertension, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, stroke, high depressive symptoms. Results: Three latent classes were identified in 1998: minimal disease (45.8% of participants), cardiovascular-musculoskeletal (34.6%), cardiovascular-musculoskeletal-mental (19.6%); and 3 in 2014: cardiovascular-musculoskeletal (13%), cardiovascular-musculoskeletal-metabolic (12%), multisystem multimorbidity (15%). Remaining participants were deceased (48%) or lost to follow-up (12%) by 2014. Compared with minimal disease, individuals in cardiovascular-musculoskeletal in 1998 were more likely to be in multisystem multimorbidity in 2014 [odds ratio (OR)=1.78, P<0.001], and individuals in cardiovascular-musculoskeletal-mental in 1998 were more likely to be deceased (OR=2.45, P<0.001) or lost to follow-up (OR=3.08, P<0.001). Hispanic and Black Americans were more likely than White Americans to be in multisystem multimorbidity in 2014 (OR=1.67, P=0.042; OR=2.60, P<0.001, respectively). Black compared with White Americans were more likely to be deceased (OR=1.62, P=0.01) or lost to follow-up (OR=2.11, P<0.001) by 2014. Conclusions and Relevance: Racial/ethnic older adults are more likely to accumulate morbidity and die compared with White peers, and should be the focus of targeted and enhanced efforts to prevent and/or delay progression to more complex multimorbidity patterns.
KW - latent class analysis
KW - multimorbidity
KW - multiple chronic conditions
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103995845&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85103995845&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001527
DO - 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001527
M3 - Article
C2 - 33821829
AN - SCOPUS:85103995845
VL - 59
SP - 402
EP - 409
JO - Medical Care
JF - Medical Care
SN - 0025-7079
IS - 5
ER -