Racial and ethnic differences in hypertension risk: New diagnoses after age 50

Objectives: Our study examines the differences in estimated risk of developing hypertension in Whites, Blacks, and Mexican- Americans aged ≥50 for a period of 11 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data came from 9,259 respondents who reported being hypertension-free at the baseline in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) with up to five time intervals (1998-2006). Discrete-time survival models were used to analyze ethnic variations in the probability of developing hypertension. Main Outcome Measure: Estimated odds of developing hypertension. Results: The risk of newly diagnosed hypertension increased between 1995 and 2006 for HRS participants aged ≥50. After adjusting for demographic and health status, the probability of incident hypertension among Black Americans was .10 during the period of 1995/96-1998, which increased steadily to .17 in 2004-2006, with cumulative incidence over the 11-year period at 51%. In contrast, among White Americans the risk was .07 during 1995/96-1998 and .13 in 2004-2006, with cumulative incidence at 43%. For Mexican-Americans, the probability also increased from .08 during 1995/96-1998 to .14 during 2004-2006, with cumulative incidence at 42%. Conclusions: Relative to White and Mexican-Americans, Black Americans had an elevated risk of incident hypertension throughout the 11-year period of observation. These variations persisted even when differences in health behaviors, socioeconomic status, demographic, and time-varying health characteristics were accounted for.