TY - JOUR
T1 - Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and Recent Increases in Advanced Prostate Cancer
AU - Nyame, Yaw A.
AU - Gulati, Roman
AU - Tsodikov, Alex
AU - Gore, John L.
AU - Etzioni, Ruth
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press.
PY - 2021/2/1
Y1 - 2021/2/1
N2 - Recent studies show decreasing prostate-specific antigen utilization and increasing incidence of metastatic prostate cancer in the United States after national recommendations against screening in 2012. Yet, whether the increasing incidence of metastatic prostate cancer is consistent in magnitude with the expected impact of decreased screening is unknown. We compared observed incidence of metastatic prostate cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published effects of continued historical screening and discontinued screening starting in 2013 projected by 2 models of disease natural history, screening, and diagnosis. The observed rate of new metastatic prostate cancer cases in 2017 was 44%-60% of the projected increase under discontinued screening relative to continued screening. Thus, the observed increase in incident metastatic prostate cancer is consistent with the expected impact of reduced screening. Although this comparison does not establish a causal relationship, it highlights the plausible role of decreased screening in the observed trend.
AB - Recent studies show decreasing prostate-specific antigen utilization and increasing incidence of metastatic prostate cancer in the United States after national recommendations against screening in 2012. Yet, whether the increasing incidence of metastatic prostate cancer is consistent in magnitude with the expected impact of decreased screening is unknown. We compared observed incidence of metastatic prostate cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published effects of continued historical screening and discontinued screening starting in 2013 projected by 2 models of disease natural history, screening, and diagnosis. The observed rate of new metastatic prostate cancer cases in 2017 was 44%-60% of the projected increase under discontinued screening relative to continued screening. Thus, the observed increase in incident metastatic prostate cancer is consistent with the expected impact of reduced screening. Although this comparison does not establish a causal relationship, it highlights the plausible role of decreased screening in the observed trend.
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U2 - 10.1093/jncics/pkaa098
DO - 10.1093/jncics/pkaa098
M3 - Article
C2 - 33442662
AN - SCOPUS:85106159714
SN - 2515-5091
VL - 5
JO - JNCI Cancer Spectrum
JF - JNCI Cancer Spectrum
IS - 1
M1 - pkaa098
ER -