Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA

Stephen R. Carpenter, Eric G. Booth, Sean Gillon, Christopher J. Kucharik, Steven Loheide, Amber S. Mase, Melissa Motew, Jiangxiao Qiu, Adena R. Rissman, Jenny Seifert, Evren Soylu, Monica Turner, Chloe B. Wardropper

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

49 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed’s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010–2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalEcology and Society
Volume20
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2015
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

watershed
ecosystem service
land use
water resource
nestedness
technological development
climate
agricultural practice
stakeholder
trajectory
sustainability
time series
weather
water quality
food
energy
trend

Keywords

  • Alternative futures
  • Climate
  • Ecosystem services
  • Eutrophication
  • Governance
  • Lakes
  • Land-use change
  • Phosphorus
  • Scenarios

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology

Cite this

Carpenter, S. R., Booth, E. G., Gillon, S., Kucharik, C. J., Loheide, S., Mase, A. S., ... Wardropper, C. B. (2015). Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA. Ecology and Society, 20(2). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07433-200210

Plausible futures of a social-ecological system : Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA. / Carpenter, Stephen R.; Booth, Eric G.; Gillon, Sean; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Loheide, Steven; Mase, Amber S.; Motew, Melissa; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Rissman, Adena R.; Seifert, Jenny; Soylu, Evren; Turner, Monica; Wardropper, Chloe B.

In: Ecology and Society, Vol. 20, No. 2, 01.01.2015.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Carpenter, SR, Booth, EG, Gillon, S, Kucharik, CJ, Loheide, S, Mase, AS, Motew, M, Qiu, J, Rissman, AR, Seifert, J, Soylu, E, Turner, M & Wardropper, CB 2015, 'Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA', Ecology and Society, vol. 20, no. 2. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07433-200210
Carpenter, Stephen R. ; Booth, Eric G. ; Gillon, Sean ; Kucharik, Christopher J. ; Loheide, Steven ; Mase, Amber S. ; Motew, Melissa ; Qiu, Jiangxiao ; Rissman, Adena R. ; Seifert, Jenny ; Soylu, Evren ; Turner, Monica ; Wardropper, Chloe B. / Plausible futures of a social-ecological system : Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA. In: Ecology and Society. 2015 ; Vol. 20, No. 2.
@article{58047c08cedd4e8badc671aafa30cb16,
title = "Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA",
abstract = "Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed’s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010–2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.",
keywords = "Alternative futures, Climate, Ecosystem services, Eutrophication, Governance, Lakes, Land-use change, Phosphorus, Scenarios",
author = "Carpenter, {Stephen R.} and Booth, {Eric G.} and Sean Gillon and Kucharik, {Christopher J.} and Steven Loheide and Mase, {Amber S.} and Melissa Motew and Jiangxiao Qiu and Rissman, {Adena R.} and Jenny Seifert and Evren Soylu and Monica Turner and Wardropper, {Chloe B.}",
year = "2015",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.5751/ES-07433-200210",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "20",
journal = "Ecology and Society",
issn = "1708-3087",
publisher = "The Resilience Alliance",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Plausible futures of a social-ecological system

T2 - Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA

AU - Carpenter, Stephen R.

AU - Booth, Eric G.

AU - Gillon, Sean

AU - Kucharik, Christopher J.

AU - Loheide, Steven

AU - Mase, Amber S.

AU - Motew, Melissa

AU - Qiu, Jiangxiao

AU - Rissman, Adena R.

AU - Seifert, Jenny

AU - Soylu, Evren

AU - Turner, Monica

AU - Wardropper, Chloe B.

PY - 2015/1/1

Y1 - 2015/1/1

N2 - Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed’s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010–2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.

AB - Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed’s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010–2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.

KW - Alternative futures

KW - Climate

KW - Ecosystem services

KW - Eutrophication

KW - Governance

KW - Lakes

KW - Land-use change

KW - Phosphorus

KW - Scenarios

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84934783681&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84934783681&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.5751/ES-07433-200210

DO - 10.5751/ES-07433-200210

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84934783681

VL - 20

JO - Ecology and Society

JF - Ecology and Society

SN - 1708-3087

IS - 2

ER -