Performance variability during a multitrial list-learning task as a predictor of future cognitive decline in healthy elders

Introduction: In clinical settings, neuropsychological test performance is traditionally evaluated with total summary scores (TSS). However, recent studies demonstrated that indices of intraindividual variability (IIV) yielded unique information complementing TSS. This 18-month longitudinal study sought to determine whether IIV indices derived from a multitrial list-learning test (the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test) provided incremental utility in predicting cognitive decline in older adults compared to TSS. Method: Ninety-nine cognitively intact older adults (aged 65 to 89 years) underwent neuropsychological testing (including the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test) at baseline and 18-month follow-up. Participants were classified as cognitively stable (n = 65) or declining (n = 34) based on changes in their neuropsychological test performance. Logistic regression modeling tested the ability of baseline TSS indices (sum of Trials 1-5, immediate recall, and delayed recall) and IIV indices (lost access and gained access) to discriminate between stable and declining individuals. Results: Higher values of both lost access and gained access at baseline were associated with an increased risk for decline at 18-month follow-up. Further, the IIV indices provided predictive utility above and beyond the TSS indices. Conclusion: These results highlight the value of analyzing IIV in addition to TSS during neuropsychological evaluation in older adults. High levels of IIV may reflect impairment in anterograde memory systems and/or executive dysfunction that may serve as a prognostic indicator of cognitive decline.