Observed best prediction for small area counts

Senke Chen, Jiming Jiang, Thuan Nguyen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

We extend the observed best prediction (OBP; Jiang, Nguyen, and Rao 2011) method to small area estimation when the responses are counts at the area level. We show via a simulation study that the OBP outperforms the empirical best prediction method when the underlying model is mis-specified. A bootstrap method is proposed for estimating the area-specific mean squared prediction error of the OBP conditioning on the small area mean counts. Two real data examples are considered.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)136-161
Number of pages26
JournalJournal of Survey Statistics and Methodology
Volume3
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

Keywords

  • Area-specific MSPE
  • Bootstrap
  • OBP
  • Poisson mixed model
  • Small area estimation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

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