TY - JOUR
T1 - National case fatality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic
AU - Ergönül, Önder
AU - Akyol, Merve
AU - Tanrıöver, Cem
AU - Tiemeier, Henning
AU - Petersen, Eskild
AU - Petrosillo, Nicola
AU - Gönen, Mehmet
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases
PY - 2021/1
Y1 - 2021/1
N2 - Objectives: The case fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) varies significantly between countries. We aimed to describe the associations between health indicators and the national CFRs of COVID-19. Methods: We identified for each country health indicators potentially associated with the national CFRs of COVID-19. We extracted data for 18 variables from international administrative data sources for 34 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We excluded the collinear variables and examined the 16 variables in multivariable analysis. A dynamic web-based model was developed to analyse and display the associations for the CFRs of COVID-19. We followed the Guideline for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Results: In multivariable analysis, the variables significantly associated with the increased CFRs were percentage of obesity in ages >18 years (β = 3.26; 95%CI = 1.20, 5.33; p 0.003), tuberculosis incidence (β = 3.15; 95%CI = 1.09, 5.22; p 0.004), duration (days) since first death due to COVID-19 (β = 2.89; 95%CI = 0.83, 4.96; p 0.008), and median age (β = 2.83; 95%CI = 0.76, 4.89; p 0.009). The COVID-19 test rate (β = –3.54; 95%CI = –5.60, –1.47; p 0.002), hospital bed density (β = –2.47; 95%CI = –4.54, –0.41; p 0.021), and rural population ratio (β = –2.19; 95%CI = –4.25, –0.13; p 0.039) decreased the CFR. Conclusions: The pandemic hits population-dense cities. Available hospital beds should be increased. Test capacity should be increased to enable more effective diagnostic tests. Older patients and patients with obesity and their caregivers should be warned about a potentially increased risk.
AB - Objectives: The case fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) varies significantly between countries. We aimed to describe the associations between health indicators and the national CFRs of COVID-19. Methods: We identified for each country health indicators potentially associated with the national CFRs of COVID-19. We extracted data for 18 variables from international administrative data sources for 34 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We excluded the collinear variables and examined the 16 variables in multivariable analysis. A dynamic web-based model was developed to analyse and display the associations for the CFRs of COVID-19. We followed the Guideline for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Results: In multivariable analysis, the variables significantly associated with the increased CFRs were percentage of obesity in ages >18 years (β = 3.26; 95%CI = 1.20, 5.33; p 0.003), tuberculosis incidence (β = 3.15; 95%CI = 1.09, 5.22; p 0.004), duration (days) since first death due to COVID-19 (β = 2.89; 95%CI = 0.83, 4.96; p 0.008), and median age (β = 2.83; 95%CI = 0.76, 4.89; p 0.009). The COVID-19 test rate (β = –3.54; 95%CI = –5.60, –1.47; p 0.002), hospital bed density (β = –2.47; 95%CI = –4.54, –0.41; p 0.021), and rural population ratio (β = –2.19; 95%CI = –4.25, –0.13; p 0.039) decreased the CFR. Conclusions: The pandemic hits population-dense cities. Available hospital beds should be increased. Test capacity should be increased to enable more effective diagnostic tests. Older patients and patients with obesity and their caregivers should be warned about a potentially increased risk.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Case fatality rate
KW - Epidemiologic
KW - Health indicators
KW - SARS-CoV-2
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U2 - 10.1016/j.cmi.2020.09.024
DO - 10.1016/j.cmi.2020.09.024
M3 - Article
C2 - 32979575
AN - SCOPUS:85092526225
SN - 1198-743X
VL - 27
SP - 118
EP - 124
JO - Clinical Microbiology and Infection
JF - Clinical Microbiology and Infection
IS - 1
ER -