TY - JOUR
T1 - Falls Predict Fractures Independently of FRAX Probability
T2 - A Meta-Analysis of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study
AU - Harvey, Nicholas C.
AU - Odén, Anders
AU - Orwoll, Eric
AU - Lapidus, Jodi
AU - Kwok, Timothy
AU - Karlsson, Magnus K.
AU - Rosengren, Björn E.
AU - Ljunggren, Östen
AU - Cooper, Cyrus
AU - McCloskey, Eugene
AU - Kanis, John A.
AU - Ohlsson, Claes
AU - Mellström, Dan
AU - Johansson, Helena
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank the participants of MrOs US, Sweden, and Hong Kong. The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study is supported by National Institutes of Health funding. The following institutes provide support: the National Institute on Aging (NIA), the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS), the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), and NIH Roadmap for Medical Research under the following grant numbers: U01 AG027810, U01 AG042124, U01 AG042139, U01 AG042140, U01 AG042143, U01 AG042145, U01 AG042168, U01 AR066160, and UL1 TR000128. MrOS Sweden is supported by the Swedish Research Council, ALF/LUA research grants in Gothenburg, and the King Gustav V and Queen Victoria Frimurarestiftelse Research Foundation. The work was also supported by the UK Medical Research Council (4050502589 (MRC LEU)).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.
PY - 2018/3
Y1 - 2018/3
N2 - Although prior falls are a well-established predictor of future fracture, there is currently limited evidence regarding the specific value of falls history in fracture risk assessment relative to that of other clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. We therefore investigated, across the three Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study cohorts, whether past falls predicted future fracture independently of FRAX and whether these associations varied with age and follow-up time. Elderly men were recruited from MrOS Sweden, Hong Kong, and USA. Baseline data included falls history (over the preceding 12 months), clinical risk factors, BMD at femoral neck, and calculated FRAX probabilities. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the associations between falls, FRAX probability, and incident fracture, adjusting for age, time since baseline, and cohort in base models; further models were used to investigate interactions with age and follow-up time. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to synthesize the individual country associations. Information on falls and FRAX probability was available for 4365 men in USA (mean age 73.5 years; mean follow-up 10.8 years), 1823 men in Sweden (mean age 75.4 years; mean follow-up 8.7 years), and 1669 men in Hong Kong (mean age 72.4 years; mean follow-up 9.8 years). Rates of past falls were similar at 20%, 16%, and 15%, respectively. Across all cohorts, past falls predicted incident fracture at any site (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49, 1.90), major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.33, 1.83), and hip fracture (HR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.27, 2.05). Relationships between past falls and incident fracture remained robust after adjustment for FRAX probability: adjusted HR (95% CI) any fracture: 1.63 (1.45, 1.83); MOF: 1.51 (1.32, 1.73); and hip: 1.54 (1.21, 1.95). In conclusion, past falls predicted incident fracture independently of FRAX probability, confirming the potential value of falls history in fracture risk assessment.
AB - Although prior falls are a well-established predictor of future fracture, there is currently limited evidence regarding the specific value of falls history in fracture risk assessment relative to that of other clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. We therefore investigated, across the three Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study cohorts, whether past falls predicted future fracture independently of FRAX and whether these associations varied with age and follow-up time. Elderly men were recruited from MrOS Sweden, Hong Kong, and USA. Baseline data included falls history (over the preceding 12 months), clinical risk factors, BMD at femoral neck, and calculated FRAX probabilities. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the associations between falls, FRAX probability, and incident fracture, adjusting for age, time since baseline, and cohort in base models; further models were used to investigate interactions with age and follow-up time. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to synthesize the individual country associations. Information on falls and FRAX probability was available for 4365 men in USA (mean age 73.5 years; mean follow-up 10.8 years), 1823 men in Sweden (mean age 75.4 years; mean follow-up 8.7 years), and 1669 men in Hong Kong (mean age 72.4 years; mean follow-up 9.8 years). Rates of past falls were similar at 20%, 16%, and 15%, respectively. Across all cohorts, past falls predicted incident fracture at any site (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49, 1.90), major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.33, 1.83), and hip fracture (HR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.27, 2.05). Relationships between past falls and incident fracture remained robust after adjustment for FRAX probability: adjusted HR (95% CI) any fracture: 1.63 (1.45, 1.83); MOF: 1.51 (1.32, 1.73); and hip: 1.54 (1.21, 1.95). In conclusion, past falls predicted incident fracture independently of FRAX probability, confirming the potential value of falls history in fracture risk assessment.
KW - EPIDEMIOLOGY
KW - FALLS
KW - FRACTURE
KW - FRAX
KW - INTERACTION
KW - OSTEOPOROSIS
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U2 - 10.1002/jbmr.3331
DO - 10.1002/jbmr.3331
M3 - Article
C2 - 29220072
AN - SCOPUS:85042125004
SN - 0884-0431
VL - 33
SP - 510
EP - 516
JO - Journal of Bone and Mineral Research
JF - Journal of Bone and Mineral Research
IS - 3
ER -