Estimated Kidney Tubular Secretion and Kidney, Cardiovascular, and Mortality Outcomes in CKD: The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial

Rational & Objective: Many drugs, metabolites, and toxins are cleared by the kidneys via tubular secretion. Whether novel endogenous measures of tubular secretion provide information about kidney, cardiovascular, and mortality risk is uncertain. Study Design: Longitudinal subgroup analysis of clinical trial participants. Setting & Participants: 2,089 Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial participants with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m² at baseline. Exposure: Summary score incorporating urine-to-plasma ratios of 10 endogenous secretion markers measured in paired urine and plasma samples at baseline. Outcome: The primary outcome was longitudinal change in eGFR. Secondary outcomes included chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression (≥50% eGFR decline or incident kidney failure requiring dialysis or kidney transplantation), a cardiovascular disease (CVD) composite (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, acute decompensated heart failure, or death from cardiovascular causes), and mortality. Analytical Approach: Linear mixed-effect models were used to evaluate the association between the secretion score and change in eGFR, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations with CKD progression, CVD, and mortality. Results: At baseline, mean age was 73 ± 9 years and eGFR was 46 ± 11 mL/min/1.73 m². During a median follow-up of 3.3 years, mean change in eGFR was −1.44% per year, and 72 CKD progression events, 272 CVD events, and 144 deaths occurred. In multivariable analyses, lower secretion score was associated with faster eGFR decline and greater risk of CKD progression, CVD, and mortality. After further adjustment for baseline eGFR and albuminuria, each 1-standard deviation lower secretion score was associated with faster eGFR decline (−0.65% per year; 95% CI, −0.84% to −0.46%), but not CKD progression (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.96-1.58), CVD (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.89-1.18), or mortality (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.74-1.09). The secretion score association with eGFR decline appeared stronger in participants with baseline eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m² (P for interaction < 0.001). Limitations: Persons with diabetes and proteinuria >1 g/d were excluded. Conclusions: Among SPRINT participants with CKD, lower estimated tubular secretion was associated with faster eGFR decline, independent of baseline eGFR and albuminuria, but not with CKD progression, CVD, or mortality.