Clinical and Echocardiographic Predictors of Outcomes in Patients With Moderate (Mean Transvalvular Gradient 20 to 40 mm Hg) Aortic Stenosis

Risk factors for adverse clinical outcomes in patients with moderate aortic stenosis are not well defined. Previous studies have suggested that certain patients with moderate AS may be at an increased risk of heart failure (HF) or death. All patients with moderate AS seen in our institution during the study period (6/1/2014 to 6/30/2017) with a minimum 1-year follow-up were included. Clinical and echocardiographic data were collected retrospectively. End points were defined as HF hospitalization, aortic valve replacement (AVR), or death. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models analyses were conducted using composite outcomes of (1) HF hospitalization or AVR and (2) HF hospitalization, AVR, or all-cause death. A total of 151 subjects met the inclusion criteria. The most significant risk factors associated with the composite outcomes were an ejection fraction (EF) <50% ((1) hazard ratio [HR]: 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.34, 7.12; (2) HR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.2, 6.6), atrial fibrillation ((1) HR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2, 3.2; (2) HR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.43, 3.2), left ventricular hypertrophy ((1) HR: 5.85; 95% CI: 2.0, 15.8; (2) HR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.4, 7.4), aortic valve area ((1) HR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1, 0.6; (2) HR: 0.32; 95% CI: 0.1, 0.65), and abnormal right ventricular function ((1) HR: 4.3; 95% CI: 2.5, 7.5; (2) HR: 5.5; 95% CI: 3.0, 9.8). In conclusion, presence of reduced ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, left ventricular hypertrophy, and abnormal right ventricular function are associated with an increased risk of HF hospitalization, AVR, and death in patients with moderate aortic stenosis.