Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios

Kristie L. Ebi, Jessica Hartman, Nathan Chan, Kenneth (John) McConnell, Michael Schlesinger, John Weyant

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

57 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)375-393
Number of pages19
JournalClimatic Change
Volume73
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2005

Fingerprint

malaria
Climate change
climate change
climate
Gas emissions
Greenhouse gases
Stabilization
general circulation model
parasite
stabilization
greenhouse gas
Temperature

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Global and Planetary Change

Cite this

Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios. / Ebi, Kristie L.; Hartman, Jessica; Chan, Nathan; McConnell, Kenneth (John); Schlesinger, Michael; Weyant, John.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 73, No. 3, 12.2005, p. 375-393.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ebi, Kristie L. ; Hartman, Jessica ; Chan, Nathan ; McConnell, Kenneth (John) ; Schlesinger, Michael ; Weyant, John. / Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios. In: Climatic Change. 2005 ; Vol. 73, No. 3. pp. 375-393.
@article{fcca72d7a89e49bfac09557fb26eda51,
title = "Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios",
abstract = "Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.",
author = "Ebi, {Kristie L.} and Jessica Hartman and Nathan Chan and McConnell, {Kenneth (John)} and Michael Schlesinger and John Weyant",
year = "2005",
month = "12",
doi = "10.1007/s10584-005-6875-2",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "73",
pages = "375--393",
journal = "Climatic Change",
issn = "0165-0009",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios

AU - Ebi, Kristie L.

AU - Hartman, Jessica

AU - Chan, Nathan

AU - McConnell, Kenneth (John)

AU - Schlesinger, Michael

AU - Weyant, John

PY - 2005/12

Y1 - 2005/12

N2 - Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.

AB - Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=27744568504&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=27744568504&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10584-005-6875-2

DO - 10.1007/s10584-005-6875-2

M3 - Article

VL - 73

SP - 375

EP - 393

JO - Climatic Change

JF - Climatic Change

SN - 0165-0009

IS - 3

ER -