Can a resident's publication record predict fellowship publications?

Vinay Prasad, Jason Rho, Senthil Selvaraj, Mike Cheung, Andrae Vandross, Nancy Ho

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Internal medicine fellowship programs have an incentive to select fellows who will ultimately publish. Whether an applicant's publication record predicts long term publishing remains unknown. Methods: Using records of fellowship bound internal medicine residents, we analyzed whether publications at time of fellowship application predict publications more than 3 years (2 years into fellowship) and up to 7 years after fellowship match. We calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and likelihood ratios for every cutoff number of application publications, and plot a receiver operator characteristic curve of this test. Results: Of 307 fellowship bound residents, 126 (41%) published at least one article 3 to 7 years after matching, and 181 (59%) of residents do not publish in this time period. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve is 0.59. No cutoff value for application publications possessed adequate test characteristics. Conclusion: The number of publications an applicant has at time of fellowship application is a poor predictor of who publishes in the long term. These findings do not validate the practice of using application publications as a tool for selecting fellows.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere90140
JournalPLoS One
Volume9
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 21 2014
Externally publishedYes

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Publications
Internal Medicine
medicine
Motivation
testing
Sensitivity and Specificity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Prasad, V., Rho, J., Selvaraj, S., Cheung, M., Vandross, A., & Ho, N. (2014). Can a resident's publication record predict fellowship publications? PLoS One, 9(3), [e90140]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0090140

Can a resident's publication record predict fellowship publications? / Prasad, Vinay; Rho, Jason; Selvaraj, Senthil; Cheung, Mike; Vandross, Andrae; Ho, Nancy.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 9, No. 3, e90140, 21.03.2014.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Prasad, V, Rho, J, Selvaraj, S, Cheung, M, Vandross, A & Ho, N 2014, 'Can a resident's publication record predict fellowship publications?', PLoS One, vol. 9, no. 3, e90140. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0090140
Prasad, Vinay ; Rho, Jason ; Selvaraj, Senthil ; Cheung, Mike ; Vandross, Andrae ; Ho, Nancy. / Can a resident's publication record predict fellowship publications?. In: PLoS One. 2014 ; Vol. 9, No. 3.
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