Age-based differences in the predictive accuracy of a one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value in prenatal integrated screening for Down syndrome

Jia Yan, Turgay Ayer, Pinar Keskinocak, Aaron Caughey

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study is to assess variation in detection and false positive rates and adverse pregnancy outcomes across different age groups when a one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value, such as 1/270, is used in integrated screening for Down syndrome. Method: A Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to estimate the detection and false positive rates as well as adverse pregnancy outcomes. Results: Using a one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value, such as 1/270, can result in considerably high variations in detection and false positive rates across maternal ages and lead to a higher than the minimum possible total number of adverse outcomes. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that the one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value of 1/270, commonly used in DS screening, should be revisited and alternative (possibly age-based) cutoff values and strategies should be considered.

LanguageEnglish (US)
JournalPrenatal Diagnosis
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - 2017

Fingerprint

Down Syndrome
Prenatal Diagnosis
Pregnancy Outcome
Monte Carlo Method
Maternal Age
Age Groups

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Obstetrics and Gynecology
  • Genetics(clinical)

Cite this

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title = "Age-based differences in the predictive accuracy of a one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value in prenatal integrated screening for Down syndrome",
abstract = "Objective: The objective of this study is to assess variation in detection and false positive rates and adverse pregnancy outcomes across different age groups when a one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value, such as 1/270, is used in integrated screening for Down syndrome. Method: A Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to estimate the detection and false positive rates as well as adverse pregnancy outcomes. Results: Using a one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value, such as 1/270, can result in considerably high variations in detection and false positive rates across maternal ages and lead to a higher than the minimum possible total number of adverse outcomes. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that the one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value of 1/270, commonly used in DS screening, should be revisited and alternative (possibly age-based) cutoff values and strategies should be considered.",
author = "Jia Yan and Turgay Ayer and Pinar Keskinocak and Aaron Caughey",
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AU - Ayer,Turgay

AU - Keskinocak,Pinar

AU - Caughey,Aaron

PY - 2017

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AB - Objective: The objective of this study is to assess variation in detection and false positive rates and adverse pregnancy outcomes across different age groups when a one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value, such as 1/270, is used in integrated screening for Down syndrome. Method: A Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to estimate the detection and false positive rates as well as adverse pregnancy outcomes. Results: Using a one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value, such as 1/270, can result in considerably high variations in detection and false positive rates across maternal ages and lead to a higher than the minimum possible total number of adverse outcomes. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that the one-size-fits-all risk-cutoff value of 1/270, commonly used in DS screening, should be revisited and alternative (possibly age-based) cutoff values and strategies should be considered.

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